First cyclone of the season!?

26 public posts in this discussion.

Post 1

Quote:
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:10 pm CST Monday 29 January 2007

A weak tropical low, 1006 hPa, is situated in the Gulf of Carpentaria. The low
will be slow moving and is expected to deepen during the next three days.

The potential for a Tropical Cyclone to develop in the Gulf of Carpentaria is
estimated to be:

Tuesday: low,
Wednesday: low,
Thursday: Moderate.

There is also the possibility that another tropical low may develop in the Timor
Sea during the next three days.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD10610.shtml

Post 2

I saw that one in Timor forming yesterday... I think that has the potential, thought the one in the gulf probably won't be too much. Though I'd hardly be an authority on it. ^_^'

Post 3

wahoo finally some decent rain

Post 4

Its not even a cyclone yet and already I am beginning to panic. Its not nice really for those of us who still get freaky coz we went through cyclone tracy I wish they didnt tell us so far ahead really.

Post 5

i would rather know asap so i can get things ready

Post 6

well id rather know sooner then later. But I don't prepare at the last minute, im prepared months in advance, like everyone who lives in Darwin should be.

Post 7

i i like to know nice and early so i can pop down to the shop and watch everyone buy all the cans of soup and bottles of water

Post 8

i only just cleaned my shed our from last years cyclone threat, just jammed everything in

Post 9

too many ppl get crazy over cyclones, its easy stay inside and its all good.
only reason that tracy did so much damage is cause the houses were crappy.
and you shouldn't need to rush to the shop as batteries/torches/tin food/ bottled water/ etc should be at home already in your cupboards.

Post 10

lol i went thru cyclone larry last year :|

thats was pretty ****ing scary, even tho i slept thru most of it and woke up "oh is it finished" but if you bat down the hatches and clean up you should be pretty safe in your own home assuming it up to code and brick :D.

Post 11

Quote:
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:10 pm CST Tuesday 30 January 2007

A weak tropical low, 1006 hPa, is situated over Melville Island. The low is
expected to move slowly east and gradually deepen during the next three days.

If the low moves offshore, the potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone
in the southern Arafura Sea or Gulf of Carpentaria is estimated to be:

Wednesday: low,
Thursday: low,
Friday: moderate.

The low previously located in the Gulf of Carpentaria has moved east over Cape
York Peninsula.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

Update

Post 12

Quote:

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Wednesday 31 January 2007

A developing TROPICAL LOW 1003 hPa is situated north of the Arnhem coast. At 12
noon CST, it was near latitude 11.2S, longitude 135.0E, about 100 km north of
Milingimbi, and moving slowly towards the east. The low is expected to move
southeast into the GULF OF CARPENTARIA and deepen further.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next few days is
estimated to be:

Thursday: low,
Friday: moderate,
Saturday: moderate to high.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

Update!

Post 13

Man......why the weekend? It's like getting sick on Saturday, and recovering by Monday.

Ripped off!

Post 14

yea but even if the cyclone develops on saturday likelihood is it wont hit till monday / tuesday. Didn't monica take ages to hit us

Plus when monica hit the creek flooded and I got a day off work anyway.. so hopefully that happens again :D

Post 15

Man. It probably wont hit until i'm gone. Bummer. I like cyclones (when they dont hit, just come close)

Post 16

[Image: http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD65001.gif]

Post 17

hrrmm its going east
usually they come from the east and go west

Post 18

did you miss the bigass portion of the map which predicts the cyclone forming, then veering off to the west and creaming groote eylandt?

Post 19

Quote from paladin;296902:
did you miss the bigass portion of the map which predicts the cyclone forming, then veering off to the west and creaming groote eylandt?

At the predicted cat 1/2 i would hardly call that creaming :)

Post 20

you haven't seen angurugu or umbakumba, have you :)

Post 21

lol, no I havent :)

Post 22

It will give it a good clean out i tell you... It's like Katherine and the Todd River, needs to be flooded every couple of years ;)

Post 23

[Image: http://www.ozoutback.com.au/postcards/postcards_forms/groote/Image/au079122.jpg]

angurugu.

[Image: http://www.ozoutback.com.au/postcards/postcards_forms/groote/Image/au079262.jpg]

umbukumba.

cyclone will rip through that place like a warlock through a raid group.

Post 24

Is that where they recorded that Lion King song? (Hakuna Matata)

Post 25

ahhh umbukumba...

After larry everytime i wanted to go to karumba i had to either go by helicopter, tinny or a very good 4 wheel drive bloody road was flooded bad. :D.

Damage to Qld was crazy, if you managed to get over the river crossings on the road back to cairns you had to fight with all the fallen tress on the road the extent of the damage to the roads and houses was insane. Returned 4 months after larry and the damage to the banana fields was still shocking maybe 15 out of like 5000 tress would be standing, oddest site seeing a field of trees just flat. i have a few photos from the Helicopter somewhere ill have to dig them up.

Post 26

i though those were pictures of palmerston, till i read the titles ;)