A developing TROPICAL LOW

Page 1 of 2; 101 public posts in this discussion.

Post 1

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD10610.shtml

"TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:25 pm CST Tuesday 16 December 2003

A developing TROPICAL LOW 1005 hPa is situated in the ARAFURA SEA. At 11am it
was near latitude 10S, longitude 140E, about 430 km northeast of Nhulunbuy, and
moving towards the west at about 15 km/h. The LOW is expected to continue
moving westwards across the southern ARAFURA SEA during the next two days.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
Wednesday: low,
Thursday: low,
Friday: moderate.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre."

See, I leave for down south for 10 days starting Friday and the weather picks up ;)

Post 2

cool :D

Post 3

Oh, ffs, and I'm taking a flight out of Darwin on Friday.

Post 4

easy for you fuckers to laugh i have to work outdoors and stand still for most of the night.

Post 5

Quote from Darkwolf:
Oh, ffs, and I'm taking a flight out of Darwin on Friday.
pack a shute :P

wicked storms are cool well there is 2 meening for "cool" there hahaha
brign on the rain and the lows and the cyclones

Post 6

oo how unfair is that they didnt give us a picture of the little storm :(

Post 7

omg... does this mean rain and lots of wind, i hope so!!!

Post 8

toki! let's go jet skiing!

Post 9

me too me too!!

Post 10

only girls scantily clad in bikinis need apply

Post 11

Woo might get some cool air finally.

Post 12

paladin, keep my hotdogs warm...and DRY

Post 13

Burk be nice, you could take Spero for a Ski one day

Post 14

i am going to take her in the dry toki!

Post 15

ill come
do u have a boat and equipment?

Post 16

We just have Two ski's and Equipment

Post 17

who needs a boat?

although.. if you like boats that much, i have a mate who will come with his boat.

Post 18

lol wicked a big GU outing! Bahaha

Post 19

:|

Post 20

Not to be one to drag the bloody thread back on topic or anything, but heres some info from people in the know (and a bloody good forum/site for those into weather related things)...

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=12;t=000116;p=4

Post 21

Ta for that, bit of a good read.
Gotta love that "The Ego has landed" :D

Post 22

Quote:

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 1:45 pm CST Wednesday 17 December 2003

A developing TROPICAL LOW 1002 hPa is situated in the ARAFURA SEA. At 11 am it
was near latitude 9.3S, longitude 136.8E, about 325 km north of Nhulunbuy, and
moving towards the west at about 15 km/h. There is a high risk of the low
becoming a tropical cyclone late Thursday. The low is expected to continue
moving west for the next 24 hours, but then may become slow moving north of the
Top End during Friday.

Gales are not expected on the Northern Territory coast within the next 48 hours.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
Thursday: high,
Friday: high,
Saturday: high.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

OHHHH YEAH BRING IT ON!!!!

Post 23

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65011.shtml You might like this to look at :) This is the first ive heard about it.. weird how dead to the world you can be at times.

Post 24

*yawn*

As long as power stays on alls good :P

Post 25

[Image: http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD65001.gif?1071645989740]

Post 26

Quote from Jono:
*yawn*

As long as power stays on alls good :P
very well said there jono :P

Post 27

Heh it'll never happen but no harm in wishing ;)

Post 28

Dang it - I leave on a 3 day road trip to Adelaide on Friday ... but if this decides to turn into a cyclone then I can't see us leaving until the cyclone has too.

Post 29

err why not?
Hell the things tiny, its not even going to do anything as it is, plus going to adelaide - believe it or not thats the other direction... :P

Post 30

Its more that we have to clean up the house and yard and paddock and shit in preparation for the cyclone, and then I doubt we will be leaving the cat the dog the chickens the fish and the cow alone in and around the house while theres a cyclone around.

Post 31

thats not gunna hit us. I mean look at every other cyclone we've had, nothings happened :roll:

Post 32

Quote from hobo_phill:
thats not gunna hit us. I mean look at every other cyclone we've had, nothings happened :roll:Well almost never. :P

Post 33

Theres always the gay odd one out who just HAS to be different :roll: :lol:

Post 34

Quote from Wrathlon:
Theres always the gay odd one out who just HAS to be different

and i think you fill those shoes nicely

Post 35

Quote from hobo_phill:
[quote:9d5e12e70f="Wrathlon"]Theres always the gay odd one out who just HAS to be different

and i think you fill those shoes nicely[/quote:9d5e12e70f]

hahahahahahah owned....

anyway
[Image: http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD65001.gif?1071669971657]

EDIT: my pic updates... woot...

Post 36

its dropped 6hPa :D

Quote:
A developing TROPICAL LOW 996 hPa is situated in the ARAFURA SEA. At 3:30 am CST
it was centred near latitude 9.5S, longitude 135.5E, about 280 km north of Elcho
Island, and moving towards the west at about 10 km/h. The low is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone during the day. Future movement of the system is
uncertain however it may become slow moving in the Arafura Sea during Friday,
before moving back southwards towards the Northern Territory coast over the
weekend.

Post 37

go cyclone... it's your birthday!

Post 38

Well, the forecasters have made there play, will nature prove them wrong?

Post 39

not allowed to hit us until christmas - repeat of tracy :)

Post 40

Quote from Wally:
not allowed to hit us until christmas - repeat of tracy :)
NO THANKS

Post 41

Man, screw those petty predictions - use a REAL prediction model..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=ngp_ausnz&prod=prp&dtg=2003121800

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcgts/fxxt01.txt

Post 42

damn

im away for christmas :cry:

i want a cyclone :(

Post 43

what are we meant to be reading overdrive? it's pretty mumbo jumbo

Post 44

50 bucks says it doens't hit! yeah we got one of those things that tells you everything about teh weather and that and yeah, it doesn't say anything about a cyclone yet but still, not gunna hit us :roll:

Post 45

woo, meph and I were grabbing some dinner tonight at cas, on our way home we saw the coolest lightning strikes, they were huge and so so clear.... :D i love lighting

((when inside cars and houses))

Post 46

CAT 1 Cyclone... sorted moved sw towards the coast a bit.... must hit darwin

Post 47

what's it called!!

Cyclone of DOOM!!?
Cyclone Destruction???

Post 48

haha.. i got the D right..

Cyclone Debbie.. please don't let us be destroyed by cyclone debbie.. :(

sh*t.. it's down to 992 hectoPascals

Post 49

Poetic justice for all the Northie sins ....

Please all bend over and place your head between your legs and ....

Nah just joking ... hope it moves away out to sea and misses you all ...

Post 50

i hope it come in a bit.. and just misses us, need some waves man!

If it Swells! Ride it!

Post 51

Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE at 9.30 AM CST:
. Centre located near...... 9.9 degrees South 135.1 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 60 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... slowly west
. Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour and intensifying
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 1
. Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

oh, bugger.

in contrast Cyclone Thelma, Cat 5
The cyclone reached peak intensity, with central pressure 920 hPa

Post 52

She's just started mate give her time

Post 53

Like all women she's probably just getting started. :P

Post 54

pay no attention to it.. it'll just get worse :)

Post 55

As long as the power stays on I couldn't give a f**k

Post 56

i've been told that it is not a category 2.. can't confirm though.

Post 57

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nt/

For when you're tired of second- and third-hand news about cyclones. :)

Post 58

I just like watching the radar loop :P

Post 59

Debbie does Darwin :P

I didnt just say that aloud, did I :P

Post 60

Now Cat2 cyclone.

Darwin on a watch.

Post 61

cat2 is still fuck all :P the only thing that will do major damage to darwin would be 5 and above.

Post 62

only goes to 5
4 would be bad
tracey was a 4 when it broke the scale

Post 63

3 & 4 Would be Bad News

5 Is Bye Bye to a large amount of House

Post 64

man get yo ass outta da hood...shits gunna be goin' down

thats for ph3n btw but yeh i saw a thing just before and apparently its headed for us. I still got 50bucks on it if someone wants to take it up :wink:

Post 65

my work will make a shit load of money after a cyclone :P

Post 66

Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE at 3.30 PM CST:
. Centre located near...... 10.1 degrees South 134.5 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 60 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 12 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour and intensifying
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 2
. Central pressure......... 982 hectoPascals

IT'S COMING RIGHT FOR US NED

Post 67

Now the weather ppl say cat3 before long.

I tend to agree with them.

My dog will not leave my side and she is shit scared.

Animals are the first to know these things, just ask Homer Simpson.

Post 68

it is intesifying just as fast as thelma.. i predict a cat 5...

Post 69

You can never predict weather :P

Post 70

i can. just did.

Post 71

god dammit its not gunna hit us, i'll raise that to 100 bucks now for any takers

Post 72

Well I've seen all the BOM links here but if you like Pretty pictures too check this one out :)

http://www.jcu.edu.au/metsat

Here's hoping the surf ain't too much !

Oh by the way. Welcome to Darwin Ebola :)

Post 73

Well its been upgraded to a Level 3 now and is starting to head more towards land (South West). Currently Darwin is still on a cyclone Watch.

Post 74

Well heres the next map

Post 75

Quote from Jono:
You can never predict weather :P

you can....

just not correctly.

Post 76

TRACYs Track

Post 77

yeha heaps of cyclones follow that same track
must be a exciting one

Post 78

Is it just me or can any1 else notice the fact that they cant hear any birds. There are generally always birds making noise out side my window.
Debbie will probably act like its coming straight for us and the turn around in the opposite direction :P Cyclones always do that :( *points at toki's map*

Post 79

it's not looking good.. poor goulburn island is gonna cop it.

Post 80

As usual :P

Post 81

NExt Step

Post 82

And what they say will happen

Post 83

I'm booked on a plane to arnhem land monday for work ... haha ... like thats going to happen.

Post 84

Quote from Toki:
And what they say will happen
where did u get that pic from?
i wanan have a closer look

Post 85

Hell.. came home to find my modem dialing up.. sure that happens.. 2 mins later.. again.. okay.. fine.. I can live with that.. notice it again about an hr later.. hmm.. right.. will check that out soon as I can be arsed.. bout 3 hrs later.. finally decide to have a look lol.. dialled up about 30 times today.. that bloody rains screwing with the phone lines.. :) Got her back to 33.6 now and rock solid.. heh..

I know nobody wants to see Darwin get trashed.. I'm no different.. but I'm always dissapointed to see a cyclone fizzle out and merge into nothingness.. meh.. hopefully the low will push back out to sea and come back as.. hmm.. Eddie? :D

Post 86

missed us... dam...

Post 87

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDG00073.shtml

Post 88

Curveball!!

Post 89

Boring

Post 90

fuck it!

Post 91

And it's over

Post 92

YOur Plane looks good now THomas

Post 93

waht did i say, you all knew i was right!!! :wink:

Post 94

yeah toki .... still going to be a rough flight though

Post 95

You guys get all the fun up there... :cry:

We were supposed to have storms last Sunday but it didn't show up.

Post 96

Ah so this is what happens while im away...just rains continuously here in singapore....

cyclones never come to darwin anymore...just not fair...

Post 97

you people are crazy. why would anyone Want a cyclone? do you like your posesions? do you like your computers and your houses and your dogs and cats? if you do you dont want a big cyclone.

Post 98

i like cyclones... i like insurance!

Post 99

I flew in through the low last night - wasnt as bad as I thought i would be - got it when it was over Katherine filling up the river...

I'm just so suprised that I'm now back AND ITS STILL RAINING! (for those that know me)

Post 100

yeah.. it is causing a lot of rain!