Not enough drugs stockpiled for Aussie swine flu pandemic, expert warns

Wow. That sounds familiar. Like the Avian bird flu that was going to take over the world a few years back. We didn't have enough for that either... but a nice pharmaceutical company was thoughtful enough to supply enough to us for a pretty penny. Here we go again...

:mad:

Not enough drugs stockpiled for Aussie swine flu pandemic, expert warns | National News | News.com.au

i wonder what the next one will be called ?
the Canine Flu?

Since I'm lazy (and driving to work) anyone care to look up total deaths from swine flu plus normal flu and compare it to deaths from the flu in a similar period in a non pandemic year?

I'm with Pala, I'm betting normal flu wins.

from memory...

normal is about 100,000 to 500,000 people in flu season world wide.
1918 H1N1 was about 70-110 million last count.
H2N2 was about 3 million.
and H2N3 was about 2.5 million.

Considering swine flu is H1N1, its spreading faster than the 1918 outbreak and kills people in nearly the same time... and were all young enough not to have a resistance to H1N1... we might to the individual HA1 or NA1, but unlikely to both... Usually swines are just a "storage" unit for influenza and haven't usually been seen as a vector. So overall unlike SARS or bird flu, this is actually spreading human to human, so its quite a concern... And remember while AIDS has killed 30 million people world wide since 1970, influenza far surpasses any other biological pandemic/disease.

Below, an essay I wrote last year for micro about influenza. It pretty much explains that its impossible to completely combat a flu pandemic because influenza reassortment is an on going thing.

Quote:
It has been estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO) that the next influenza pandemic could result in 2 million to 7.4 million deaths world wide.

Discuss the origins of the 1918, 1957 and 1968 pandemic influenza viruses.

Influenza is a RNA virus that contains 8 negative sense genomic strands, 2 surface glycoproteins - hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, and a enzyme - polymerase. The virus itself is the cause of seasonal flu disease and occasionally is the cause of world wide pandemics. The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated the next pandemic may result in up to 7.4 million deaths world wide. It therefore has been an essential part of influenza research to understand the causes of the last three influenza pandemics. This essay will go into brief detail on the origins of the great 1918 pandemic, the 1957 pandemic and the most recent 1968 pandemic.

The 1918 influenza pandemic, caused by an influenza strain designated as H1N1, was possibly responsible for 50 to 100 million deaths according to recent accounts. Reid et al. (1999) discusses two possible theories of the H1N1 hemagglutinin origin. One theory is that it originated from an avian source, and with little or no mutation it was able to go straight into the circulating human influenza. However this theory is near impossible to determine as avian influenza of the time no longer exist. The other theory was determined from examining frozen samples of human lung tissue. This theory stated that the 1918 influenza A virus was derived from an avian source that, rather than being transferred directly to humans, used swine as a medium. Reid et al. (2000) went on to sequence the genome of the 1918 neuraminidase glycoprotein and discovered that it was similar to avian neuraminidase. More recently the genome of the polymerase has been sequenced as well. It has been shown that it is of avian origin, and not the circulating avian type, but a different one (Pappas et al., 2008). Essentially these three sources heavily indicate that the 1918 influenza pandemic was created from an avian influenza entering directly into the circulating human influenza or used the swine influenza as a transport medium.

A new strain emerged in 1957, H2N2, taking over from seasonal H1N1 flu outbreaks (Glezen, 1996). From the genomic sequencing the hemagglutinin of the 1957 H2N2 pandemic, it too was found to have close ties with the hemagglutinin of an avian source (Sch?ffr et al, 1993). This led to the finding that the origin of the 1957 H2N2 hemagglutinin was found to have gone through a genetic reassortment of the influenza A ss(-)RNA genome. Reassortment is the mixing of two virus genomes that have infected the one cell. This results in the creation of a completely new strain of virus that contains parts of both the genomes. It included parts of hemagglutinin-2 from humans/swine and parts of the hemagglutinin-2 from avian waterborne life. Shu et al. (1996) found that genetic reassortment of avian and human strains could feasibly result in the emergence of new pandemic and interpandemic strains. This was the case for the pandemic in 1957. Shu et al. (1996) went on to point out that in ?interpandemic periods the reassortants have no survival advantage, and the circulating interpandemic influenza viruses in humans do not appear to accumulate avian influenza virus genes.?

The 1968 influenza A pandemic was characterised by the emergence of a new reassorted strain, H3N2. Gillian (1981) notes that H3N2 was not derived from mutations in the current circulating human influenza. However, it was found that instead the reassortment of current H2N2 influenza A viruses that were circulating had become reassorted with avian H3 influenza viruses. Kawaoka et al. (1989) studied the polymerase of the 1968 H3N2 and discovered that its genomic sequence came from an avian origin that was transferred into swine influenza. This has led to the understanding that polymerase reassortment from avian influenza origin to human or swine influenza is more than frequent than first thought. The primary point learnt from the genomic sequencing of the 1968 H3N2 virus, is that the majority of its sequence actually comes from its predecessor, H2N2 (Shu et al, 1996). The hemagglutinin-3 glycoprotein is the main change from the H2N2 stain to H3N2 stain. It is believed that it was a smaller pandemic because there was little genomic change to the neuraminidase glycoprotein, and thus the human population had already built up a small defence against it (Shu et al, 1996).

While the 1918 Influenza A pandemic was the result of an avian influenza entering directly into the circulating human influenza A population, it must be noted that the more recent pandemics (1957 and 1968) are the result of a reassortment of human and avian influenzas. A new influenza pandemic could be just around the corner. If another pandemic occurred which was derived entirely from an avian origin like that in 1918, mass deaths will occur. Under the current circumstances, all countries will be affected, medical supplies will be inadequate and deaths world wide will be inevitable. Alternatively, if a new pandemic is caused by reassorted human and avian influenzas, we can hope that it would not be quite as potent. Either way, with no vaccine developed for resisting influenza strains at this time, they will remain a large threat to the human species.

References

Gillian, M. A. (1981). Sequence relationships among the hemaggluttinin genes of 12 subtypes of influenza A virus. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 78, 7639-7643.

Glezen, P. W. (1996). Emerging Infections: Pandemic Influenza. Epidemiol Rev 18, 64-76.

Pappas, C., Aguilar, P. V., Basler, C. F., Sol?rzano, A., Zeng, H., Perrone, L. A., Palese, P., Garc?a-Sastre, A., Katz, J. M., & Tumpey, T. M. (2008). Single gene reassortants identify a critical role for PB1, HA, and NA in the high virulence of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus. PNAS 105, 3064-3069.

Reid, A. H., Fanning, T. G., Hultin, J. V. & Taubenberger, J. K. (1999). Origin and evolution of the 1918 "Spanish" influenza virus hemagglutinin gene. PNAS 96, 1651-1656.

Reid, A. H., Fanning, T. G., Janczewski T. A. &Taubenberger, J. K. (2000). Characterization of the 1918 "Spanish" influenza virus neuraminidase gene. PNAS 97, 6785-6790.

Sch?ffr, J. R., Kawaoka, K., Bean, W. J., S?ss, J., Senne D. & Webster, R. G. (1993). Origin of the Pandemic 1957 H2 Influenza A Virus and the Persistence of Its Possible Progenitors in the Avian Reservoir. Virology 194, 781-788.

Shu, L. P., Sharp, G. B., Lin, Y. P., Claas, E. C. J., Krauss, S. L., Shortridge, K. F. & Webster, R. G. (1996). Genetic reassortment in pandemic and interpandemic influenza viruses. European Journal of Epidemiology 12, 63-70.

Kawaoka, Y., Krauss, S. & Webster R. G. (1989). Avian-to-human transmission of the PB1 gene of influenza A viruses in the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. J Virol 63, 4603?4608.

oh and as to stockpiling, flu shots have a use by and as the flu stains change all the time theres no real point to stockpiling flu drugs...
Relenza is the shit if you want help in combatting it, its the most effect.

it's not so much that, i know normal flu will win, it's more about how many 'extra' people are dying from 'swine flu' that probably wouldn't have died from the regular strain.

thanks psy.. how valid is it to compare 1918 figures to now tho? with overall advances in caring for patients and the like.

do you have any figures on what the overall death toll to bird flu was? or overall flu infection rates for a year? ie, to see what percentage of people who contract the flu, die from it

oh sweet, someone's made a paranoia map: H1N1 Swine Flu - Google Maps

so now you can see where you dont want to be :)

astonishingly (in)appropriate flash game:
Pandemic - Flash Game

Yeah that was my first thought when I heard this on the radio. PAndemic 2 is better but goddamn madagascar ;_;

On the upside I once wiped out the world with a deadly strain of Whooping AIDS.

Quote from paladin;364306:
thanks psy.. how valid is it to compare 1918 figures to now tho? with overall advances in caring for patients and the like.

do you have any figures on what the overall death toll to bird flu was? or overall flu infection rates for a year? ie, to see what percentage of people who contract the flu, die from it

It is still quite valid, if a highly virulent stain arises there will be alot of deaths. There may not be many, it might just be a small pandemic, but do you think larger countries like china, india and russia can look after all there population? If this flu triggers a cytokine storm like the 1918 one in a patients body, theres no treatment to stop there own body from distorying itself.
and it its mildly virulent, then you'll get secondary bacterial infections (usually pneumonia associated) which is still quite hard to treat in western countries. Richer countries will be fine (deaht rate wise), poorer countries will be ****ed...

You've got to remember that all the recent bird flu was just rare cases of bird > human, there was no cases of human > human. And with the flu you can't put a percentage on it from how many contract it to how many will die. The number of cases that arn't reported and the number of misdianosed cases would be to great. Confrimed death figures are about the only way of judging if a flu season is going to be bad or not.

Avian death figures
CDC - Avian Influenza (Flu) | Avian Influenza A Virus Infections of Humans

Just infect everyone with HIV, should dramatically lower their chances of dying to a cytokine storm

lol, that has to be the quote of the day :P

well, here's another.

lets say the swine flu kills lots of people, at least it will help with unemployment, so swine flu is good for the economy!

dont stop there... global warming as well!

Quote:
THERE aren't enough anti-viral drugs to combat a potential global swine flu pandemic, with local stocks sufficient to cover just over one third of the population, a drug company executive says

I sorry who said that. Oh thats right someone whose job it is to sell as many drugs as possible.

I like XKCD approach

Quote:
Bad flu epidemics can hit young adults hardest because they provoke their powerful immune systems into overreaction, so to stay healthy spend the next few weeks drunk and sleep-deprived to keep yours suppressed.

Yeah I love the way there are no quotes in the story from medical professionals... only drug salesmen... lol

there are never enough drugs stockpiled for anything :P

you really think the news networks saying:

"if you have any normal flu symptoms, like a sore throat, coughing, and other generic flu symptoms, GO SEE YOUR GP AND GIVE HIM HEAPS OF CASH OR YOU MIGHT DIE"

and not cashing in somehow :P lets hope its not like, the bubonic plague or anything, but its probably just people trying to cash in on a possible bad situation. ala y2k bug.

This is so dumb.

Australian stockpiles of anti-viral drug Tamiflu are out of date | National News | News.com.au

Zanamivir - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Relenza.

ugh, Australia developed Relenza, and any sales it gets it goes to the developers. Why the **** are we buying any tamiflu...

Pretty sure I read that there were 9 million doses stored away for a rainy day.

Yeah, not like it's the aporkalypse or anything.

Quote from paladin;364478:
Yeah, not like it's the aporkalypse or anything.

eeyore-ways says that.

Quote from paladin;364478:
Yeah, not like it's the aporkalypse or anything.

It's ok, I've got oinkment...

Quote from grandinferno;364481:
It's ok, I've got oinkment...

Pointless, 9 million doses is hardly anything to snort at, should cover everyone.

That depends if the average Australian makes a pig of themselves and takes more than they need.

[Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yl3UMO-TkE&feature=related]

Quote:
Bird flu bigger threat than swine flu, expert says

Posted 8 minutes ago

* Map: Melbourne 3000

A Melbourne-based expert on influenza says bird flu poses a bigger threat worldwide than swine flu.

In Australia there are about 80 suspected cases of swine flu, but none are confirmed.

Doctor Alan Hampson is a consultant to the World Health Organisation (WHO) and chairs Australia's influenza specialist group.

Dr Hampson says he would be surprised if the current swine flu outbreak develops into a pandemic, and says avian flu remains a bigger concern.

"It is still there, it is still infecting people, it is still potentially quite a severe threat," he said.

"I think that virus, if it did get into the human population, would be far more severe than the virus that we're currently seeing spreading."

So far 18 countries worldwide have confirmed 898 cases of swine flu.

Bird flu bigger threat than swine flu, expert says - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Some critics said there would be a black president of the USA when pig fly and sure enough 100days latter swine flu.

rofl

.

Quote from HeReTiC;364493:
YouTube - Punch line drum

Either none of you ****ers played that media, or you have no sense of humour :p
Had me in tears.

Tears spread hamthrax.

Hahahaha @ Morge & Tard

lol! that out of the way, i'd like to call a lolatorium before the puns get out of control.

oh shit too late!

we used to have a student we called Pork-pie... wonder how she's fairing with this epidemic.